In the Future...

If you would like to be notified if and when I resume blogging, please email me at will.rahal@gmail.com . I will store your email address and send a mass email BCC when the time comes.

Thank You.

You have been very kind with your comments.

As soon as I have more time available, I will try posting
sporadically.

Again, thank you.

Will

What's Fair is Fair

As some of you know, I have great responsibilities at work.

I find trading challenging, amusing and benefit from it handsomely.

This blog,however, was not intended to hold the hand of the
novice trader.

I have come to realize, moreover, that not everyone that follows
my blog is an adept trader.

It is unfair for this group that I do not provide more guidance,
but the fact that I have many other obligations makes this goal
impossible.

So, unless and until I have more time, I will refrain from having
a blog which carries the affliction of people's money.

I do thank all(well, almost all) of you for making this endeavor
pleasant.

That's All Folks!

I will stop blogging as of today.

It has been fun!

Thank you all.

Trading for April 6, 2009

Click picture to enlarge.

5-Day Momentum. S&P = yellow.
Price Momentum = blue. Intraday behavior = pink.


For Monday (4/6) the Up/Down Indicator is .44 suggesting
a negative bias for the Stock Market.

The S&P interval = 5.75 points.

Service Economy Peril: The Evidence

Last year I commented about the peril of an economy so heavily
tilted towards services.
Click "Service Fatigue" and
"Service Economy Peril"

The Service Sector represented 84% of US. Employment.

Jobs are dependent on consumption.


The Y/Y percent change in Service Consumption has decline to
historic lows.

This has led to job destruction surpassing that of the feeble
Manufacturing Sector...



It is not unreasonable to expect the 18-month rate of change in
Real Service Consumption to decline further...



Leading to a weakening in pricing power...



With no relief in sight from Wages...


The implication for investing: the economic pain will continue.

Covered ES 830

Will short again.

Shorted ES 842.50

This is 2 x Interval + previous close.

Price Momentum Extreme

The chart above illustrates ST Price Momentum(blue) vs. S&P(yellow).

Note that during bear markets, the extremes in the ST price
momentum are exacerbated, while during the bull market from
2003 to 2007, the extremes were relatively subdued.

The ST Price Momentum, moreover, is pointing to an overbought
condition that is not sustainable, even for a bear market rally.



Click picture to enlarge.

5-Day Momentum. S&P = yellow.
Price Momentum = blue. Intraday behavior = pink.


For Friday (4/3) the Up/Down Indicator is .40 suggesting
a negative bias for the Stock Market.

The S&P interval = 5.75 points.

Tomorrow I will sell strength.

I expect the market to pull back for a day or two.

The momentum is strong enough to warrant caution for bearish
bets and I would not be surprised if the rally is extended for
a couple of more weeks.

Trading for April 2, 2009

Click chart to enlarge.

5-Day Momentum Indicator, last 100 days. S&P Index = yellow.

IB = Intraday Behavior(pink). PM = Price Momentum(blue).

For Thursday (4/2), the Up/Down Indicator is .43 suggesting
a negative bias for the Stock Market.

Despite the bias, futures are indicating a strong day.

The S&P Interval = 7.5 points.