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Disclaimer.
About Me
- Will Rahal
- I have worked as an Investment Strategist for Merrill Lynch and have followed the Financial Markets for over 25 years. I provide the day trader with daily Up/Down probability for the Stock Market. The swing trader can use the 5-Day Momentum dicator and the Long Term Investor will benefit from unique, insightful Economic analyses not seen elsewhere.
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21 comments:
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ric
Will,
could you please remove my email address from my post above? Did not think about if when submitting, but I will be buried with spam.
Thanks,
friendly J.
BTW, sounds like sell in May might work this year too.
Noted here also that Will's target was reached. I still think the bulls can push this farther though (and am on record).
MarkM
MarkM,
Market may go higher, but first we go down circa 800-820.
Will, I'd really like to know your thoughts about the market for the next few weeks. I understand if you're too busy to post, but if not, I (and I think many others) would appreciate even a short weekend post.
Win
I don't know what Will thinks, but my indicators show readings similar to end May/early June 2008. The bullish strength is waning and distribution started already. Yes, last shot up is possible on some kind of news, but this bear rally is almost over.
Jack
Win-
Consolidation wouldn't surprise me in the least.
MarkM
Will,
Thank you so much for all of your comments and guidance.
I was most impressed to to see your "big picture" calls for caution and warning of future economic downturn back in Fall and Winter 2007 when all the hype was about de-coupling of the world economy, good earnings, etc. You were spot on that recession was coming.
Kudos and thanks for sharing the data, analysis, and perspective.
Thanks, Mark M. It's interesting that Will's blog is turning into a discussion board, and that we still come back here even though he has stopped posting.
I am tired of the chop and resolved to not make any swing trades until I get a better, more confirmed indication of direction.
I'm market neutral; not trading much, I can't find any confirmed direction to the market. Looks like MarkM could be in for another market moving call! We'll have to see he's half-way there.
SS
SS-
This reminds me a lot of the relentless push in 2007 or better yet the May 2001 idiocy. I have got what I want out of this now. Just be prepared for the trend to bend.
MarkM
Carl Swenlin at Decision Point is getting bullish, saying they have a "medium-term buy signal."
http://decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090501_rc.html
Thanks, MarkM, Win
SS
Lots of people converted to a bull side, including Mark Faber.
The ECRI end of recession report probably explains the explosion of buying lately:
http://www.businesscycle.com/
I would love to hear Will's take on that. I'm contrarian in nature and feel that there is way too much optimism now. On the ether hand what it this is 2003 when optimism lasted a year?
Jack
Win-
Yes, I think there is a little more in this. I would watch the Adv/Dec line for clues of breaking down. Alternately, we could get a sudden explosion in volume. If we get the latter over a few days, this could then go a very long way. The fundamentals are still quite poor but that is only one leg of the stool. Technicals have been supportive and traders are obviously more comfortable with risk.
MarkM
Will, how are you doing?
I can't believe you stay quiet during this turning point that you predicted.
SS/Win-
Looks to me like we will see a substantial pullback here. Then I think its one more push to price in the V recovery. Truth will win out after that.
MarkM
Thanks, MarkM. The Mclellan (and even the Summation index are agreeing with your opinion, but this morning's strength suggests otherwise. Let's see. I have been playing your scenario, but today's morning strength is a bit worrisome.
Win-
I was expecting this thrust back up to 900 area. I didn't like the strong close though. I will be very surprised if we don't see 830 again before a push past the rally highs.
MarkM
Hi Will, how are things?
Is this the beginning of the March low retest like you were taking about a few months ago?
I miss your big picture posts.
Jack
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