economy would deteriorate at a faster rate than the bleak
Manufacturing sector.
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I had no evidence at the time but expected it to surface.
The chart below provides some evidence.
As employment in the Goods-Producing sector outperforms
Services, the number on the chart rises.
Note that the amplitude and duration of the relative change in
Employment has increased.
Currently, the pain continues. As employment falters, so do Wages.
The good news: The unemployed will reassess their economic and
educational opportunities for a more prosperous future.
The bad news: More jobs losses.
9 comments:
Will,
The historic wage data seem to reverse without any bottoming process. What kind of data are you looking at to foresee a turning point in the economy?
SS
I have to admit that I don't fully understand these charts or implications. However, cannot help but notice that previous rebounds started at these depressed levels. Could the SP 666 possibly be the bottom this time? Very confused, especially since I see some bullish divergences on the weekly and daily charts. But may be just looking too hard?
Still very positive news, the manufactutring sector is regaining its due place. even though the ISM is losing pace.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts with us Will.
John
Will,
What is your opinion on gold?
SS, wages turning up is one.
I think there is a chance of a small recovery followed by a further slowdown.
My pleasure, John.
Win, I do not have a strong opinion about gold.
Wil,
That's what I was thinking; inventories are very low and maybe rebuilt in the second half of the year with the stimulus. There may be a brief burst of pent-up demand as well. Companies will be reluctant to hire though so it may fizzle out quickly enough.
SS
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