The chart above is that of the S&P500 Index plotted against
the NYSE Advancing-Declining Volume Index for over a year.
Blue line: S&P500 Index
Pink line: Advancing-Declining Volume Index
Notice the negative divergence of price vs. volume.
Click chart to enhance.
5-Day Momentum Indicator, last 100 days. S&P = yellow.
IB = Intraday Behavior(pink). PM = Price Momentum(blue).
The 5-Day Momentum Indicator is now in SELL mode.
For Tuesday (5/20), the Up/Down Indicator is .60, suggesting
a positive bias for the Stock Market.
Despite the positive bias for tomorrow, the strategy is the same:
sell the rallies and establish short positions.
The S&P Interval = 9.50 points.
My Performance today = -0.9%
Year-to-date ................ 27.4%
S&P year-to-date ......... -2.9%
For the long term investor, I provided an intraday update to buy
the inverse ETF TWM at 68.25. The low was 68.17, so hopefully
most interested in following this recommendation should have
gotten it near today's low.
As the Russel-2000 drops in price, TWM will perform twice as well.
8 comments:
Will-
The size of that gap portends a pretty healthy leg down. Is that why you used the words "long term investor" in your post regarding TWM?
Best,
MarkM
Will,
Another .60 day indicator (up) , when everyone is awaiting the correction! Decidedly there are a lot of people with money to loose which can keep the market up for some time (months, years) in spite of fundamentals. While advance decline volume is sending a clear negative signal, what about the contrary indication of the advanced decilne raw numbers, e.g. as seen in the number of stocks above their two hundred day moving average as compared with the number below or stocks rising above their highs as compared to new lows? "Trader Forum" has data on both these indicators. I am trading from both the long and short side but would like to see some of my shorts come in before they start using foreclosed houses for winter fuel supplement. Best.
SS
Hi Will
I read your blog everyday. I do not know how I stumbled upon it. I enjoy your commentary. I am impressed with your trading success. What are your thoughts on TSX in Canada for next week? Are you contemplating taking subscriptions to your trades?
Great site.
ricwklassen@hotmail.com
Yes, MarkM
Sorry, rick,
I am not contemplating subscriptions.
Best of luck, SS
Will -- Is your chart based on daily or weekly data? I can't seem to make the same plot with my charting software & data...
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