The chart above is that of the year-on-year percent change in
Employment in Services excluding Health and Education.
Employment in Health and Education tend to be fairly
independent of economic cycles. I commented on this series
last month.
Note how precipitous the decline was in the last two recessions.
Since we are at the brink of the precipice, one can expect further
deterioration to actually accelerate.
4 comments:
Cliff Diving... here we go. Will this lead to a cascade lower in economic activity?
Credit Contraction -> Consumer Cutback -> Business Layoffs -> Consumer Cutback -> Business (GDP) Contraction {LOOP}
I am the author of acrossthecurve.com. You had commented on my piece over at seeking alpha. This is an excellent site and I will be sure to visit.
Rearding employment it does seem that we are about to fall off a cliff. The only areas in which there are the education and health sector and leisure and hospitality. It is amazing how weak the rest of the report is. Though most of the investment bank economists whom I read seem to think that as the numbers are printing now theyportend shallow recession only.
I think so, noble.
john,
I have been negative on the economy and do not agree with most
analysts calling for just a slowdown.
I think the recession will be deep and prolonged.
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